Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  31.6  32.6  27.2  33.3  29.5  26.6  32.7  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   6.0  11.0  16.0  29.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 141.0 103.0 111.0  52.0  84.0  82.0 101.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  88.0  88.0  86.0  87.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        3.9%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 EP032022 220618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  31.6  32.6  27.2  33.3  29.5  26.6  32.7  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  88.0  88.0  86.0  87.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%