Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  28.4  25.7  29.2  31.5  27.3  28.7  28.1  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   7.0   8.0  15.0  20.0  25.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 122.0 119.0 116.0  63.0  83.0  57.0 165.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  83.0  86.0  88.0  88.0  89.0  89.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        4.8%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 EP032022 220619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  28.4  25.7  29.2  31.5  27.3  28.7  28.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  83.0  86.0  88.0  88.0  89.0  89.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%