Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     91.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  33.5  35.0  35.2  30.1  27.9  25.3  20.3  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   7.0  11.0  15.0  26.0  33.0  46.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  68.0  61.0  49.0  49.0  72.0 167.0 174.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  84.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  87.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        8.8%        6.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 EP032022 220619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     91.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  33.5  35.0  35.2  30.1  27.9  25.3  20.3  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  84.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  87.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%