Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  36.5  34.9  31.6  32.3  31.5  22.2  23.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  13.0  16.0  20.0  37.0  35.0  37.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  58.0  49.0  56.0  24.0 108.0 123.0 196.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.0%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        9.5%        7.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 EP032022 220619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  36.5  34.9  31.6  32.3  31.5  22.2  23.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%