Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  30.5  28.3  30.8  32.3  27.0  23.5  20.9  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  15.0  19.0  26.0  34.0  47.0  32.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  38.0  32.0  84.0  56.0 125.0 177.0 196.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%       11.8%       11.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 EP032022 220620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  30.5  28.3  30.8  32.3  27.0  23.5  20.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%