Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.0  28.3  31.4  29.0  21.7  25.4  22.7  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  16.0  23.0  35.0  30.0  45.0  27.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  12.0  28.0  25.0  98.0 137.0 148.0 225.0  U  U  U  U  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  86.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.5%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        4.0%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%       14.2%       12.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 EP032022 220620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.0  28.3  31.4  29.0  21.7  25.4  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  86.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%