Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220620 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.4  25.8  23.2  28.3  30.6  25.1  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  19.0  33.0  34.0  32.0  38.0  22.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 134.6 132.3 134.6 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  23.0  75.0  91.0 127.0 153.0 158.0 158.0  U  U  N  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  86.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.1%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        3.5%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%       12.3%       12.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 EP032022 220620 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.4  25.8  23.2  28.3  30.6  25.1  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  86.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%