Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220620 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  23.6  26.2  29.7  32.1  28.6  24.4  19.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  34.0  25.0  27.0  40.0  22.0  12.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  72.0 101.0  97.0 140.0 153.0 159.0 156.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       12.9%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.3%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       16.6%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%        7.4%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        4.7%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h       15.7%       19.7%       17.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 EP032022 220620 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  23.6  26.2  29.7  32.1  28.6  24.4  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%