Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220621 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     96.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  23.4  27.5  29.2  39.5  33.5  24.9  18.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  29.0  29.0  45.0  30.0  17.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 114.0  97.0 124.0 134.0 153.0 153.0 148.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.0%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       20.9%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        7.7%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        7.1%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        7.1%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       21.6%       13.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.2%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%        8.2%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        5.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.0%       21.9%       19.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 EP032022 220621 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     96.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  23.4  27.5  29.2  39.5  33.5  24.9  18.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%