Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220621 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     98.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.7  29.0  34.3  39.0  31.7  17.3  17.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  46.0  34.0  24.0  15.0  17.0  19.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  95.0 141.0 138.0 152.0 149.0 118.0  85.0  N  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  81.0  84.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       10.8%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.3%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        8.8%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        4.5%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        2.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       17.0%       14.7%       15.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 EP032022 220621 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     98.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.7  29.0  34.3  39.0  31.7  17.3  17.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  81.0  84.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%