Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220621 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     98.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  29.3  31.8  36.9  39.0  27.6  19.5  19.9  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  33.0  31.0  30.0  17.0  15.0  17.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 118.0 105.0 120.0 161.0 126.0  82.0  96.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       12.1%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        3.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        8.5%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        4.5%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%       11.3%       10.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 EP032022 220621 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     98.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  29.3  31.8  36.9  39.0  27.6  19.5  19.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%