Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220621 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  31.1  34.2  35.2  31.7  19.6  21.0  17.8  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  28.0  22.0  16.0  15.0  16.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0 168.0 140.0 171.0 159.0 124.0  97.0 120.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  82.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  82.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        4.8%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       33.4%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       16.1%       12.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       16.1%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       15.6%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       28.3%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%       16.6%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%       10.1%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%       21.0%       15.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 EP032022 220621 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  31.1  34.2  35.2  31.7  19.6  21.0  17.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  82.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  82.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%