Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220622 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  34.9  32.9  29.5  22.3  17.6  14.0  17.3  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  15.0  13.0  14.0  14.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 108.6  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 139.0 172.0 178.0 159.0  86.0 137.0 146.0  F VF VF VF VF  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       15.2%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        4.9%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        4.9%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        4.9%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       14.5%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       11.6%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        5.2%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h       16.0%       16.1%       16.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 EP032022 220622 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  34.9  32.9  29.5  22.3  17.6  14.0  17.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%