Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  30.1  25.7  24.3  16.8  18.2  15.0  22.9  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0  12.0  11.0  15.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9  96.6  84.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 140.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 116.0 139.0 103.0  F VF VF  F  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  78.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%        8.5%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        7.0%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        6.8%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP032022 220622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  30.1  25.7  24.3  16.8  18.2  15.0  22.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  78.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%