Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  27.4  21.0  17.2  16.9  14.8  21.3  28.3  U  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0  10.0  13.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 102.4  89.4  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 167.0 156.0 150.0 139.0 151.0 196.0 134.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  81.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  75.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       18.7%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        7.5%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        7.4%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        7.4%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       20.7%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%       15.5%       15.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        7.2%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h       16.9%       12.5%       14.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP032022 220622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  27.4  21.0  17.2  16.9  14.8  21.3  28.3  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  81.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  75.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%