Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220622 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.60 103.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 22.6 17.9 17.3 16.7 14.8 21.8 24.1 N N F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 10.0 10.0 13.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 97.4 81.0 74.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 165.0 144.0 138.0 131.0 111.0 184.0 165.0 130.0 VF VF VF F F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 84.0 82.0 77.0 73.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 21.6% 31.4% 26.5% 30kt / 24h 8.6% 15.9% 12.2% 35kt / 24h 4.6% 15.9% 10.2% 40kt / 24h 4.6% 15.9% 10.2% 45kt / 36h 15.9% 28.2% 22.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.2% 5.1% 55kt / 48h 19.3% 19.0% 19.2% 70kt / 48h 5.0% 9.9% 7.4% 65kt / 72h 13.5% 12.1% 12.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 EP032022 220622 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.60 103.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 22.6 17.9 17.3 16.7 14.8 21.8 24.1 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 84.0 82.0 77.0 73.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%