Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  20.4  18.1  19.1  12.2  18.9  20.7  24.4  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  14.0  13.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3  91.6  77.7  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 109.0 116.0 105.0 111.0 171.0 132.0 106.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  85.0  81.0  79.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.1%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.6%       23.2%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       10.6%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       10.6%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       10.6%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.1%       20.8%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h       12.1%       12.1%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        6.1%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%        7.5%        7.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 EP032022 220623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  20.4  18.1  19.1  12.2  18.9  20.7  24.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  85.0  81.0  79.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%