Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.7  20.8  17.6  12.1  17.8  20.1  16.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0  10.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 114.6 105.7  89.8  74.6  68.6  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 111.0 114.0 105.0 143.0 162.0 123.0  10.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       13.2%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.1%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       10.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        4.0%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        2.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        3.5%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP032022 220623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.7  20.8  17.6  12.1  17.8  20.1  16.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%