Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.3  18.8  15.0  20.3  23.3  20.4  13.9  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 107.9 101.5  93.5  82.7  76.1  70.0  60.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 116.0 122.0  97.0 184.0 139.0 109.0  84.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  85.0  83.0  79.0  77.0  68.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       12.3%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        5.1%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        9.3%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        2.6%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        2.0%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        2.9%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP032022 220623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.3  18.8  15.0  20.3  23.3  20.4  13.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  85.0  83.0  79.0  77.0  68.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%