Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220623 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.9  13.5  12.1  17.9  23.8  15.7  11.9  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 103.6  97.4  89.8  81.0  73.0  70.0  61.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0 110.0  77.0 132.0 141.0 110.0  56.0  44.0  F  F  N  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  80.0  74.0  67.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -7.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.9%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       20.0%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%       10.4%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%       10.2%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       10.0%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       17.9%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        3.7%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        3.6%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        4.3%        3.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP032022 220623 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.9  13.5  12.1  17.9  23.8  15.7  11.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  80.0  74.0  67.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -7.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%