Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220624 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 15.9 18.1 21.4 22.7 19.7 13.1 14.0 N F F N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.6 95.5 89.8 84.4 76.1 71.5 67.2 55.5 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 109.0 88.0 141.0 152.0 109.0 72.0 67.0 23.0 F F VF VF F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 80.0 79.0 77.0 69.0 69.0 64.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 3.3% 7.7% 5.5% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 1.1% 6.4% 3.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 70kt / 48h 2.0% 1.2% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 EP032022 220624 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.