Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220624 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 15.8 17.1 15.4 22.1 16.8 11.4 16.8 F F F F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.5 79.4 74.3 71.1 68.0 63.6 55.4 41.7 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 141.0 170.0 118.0 101.0 50.0 58.0 -46.0 F VF VF F F N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 75.0 67.0 67.0 64.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 -1.0 -11.0 N N N N N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 6.7% 10.3% 8.5% 30kt / 24h 2.5% 4.6% 3.6% 35kt / 24h 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 45kt / 36h 2.7% 9.6% 6.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 3.5% 1.2% 2.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 EP032022 220624 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.