Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220624 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 108.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 15.3 14.2 20.2 18.0 12.5 11.9 14.3 F F F N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.0 72.7 67.7 64.6 61.5 57.2 46.7 32.8 N U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 147.0 141.0 107.0 132.0 62.0 64.0 33.0 5.0 VF VF F F N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 79.0 78.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 66.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -4.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.0% 7.2% 8.6% 25kt / 24h 17.9% 21.9% 19.9% 30kt / 24h 8.1% 13.1% 10.6% 35kt / 24h 4.4% 13.1% 8.8% 40kt / 24h 3.4% 12.3% 7.9% 45kt / 36h 6.7% 23.1% 14.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 11.6% 5.8% 55kt / 48h 6.9% 2.7% 4.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 EP032022 220624 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 108.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.