Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220624 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  13.7  18.5  18.5  15.4  11.7  15.9  17.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  66.0  61.1  58.0  55.0  49.4  39.3  24.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   140.0 120.0 119.0 114.0  87.0  64.0  -6.0 -29.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -9.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.0%        8.6%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       21.5%       20.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       13.4%       11.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       13.4%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       12.7%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       20.6%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 EP032022 220624 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.