Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220625 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 109.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.0 16.6 15.3 14.8 12.6 13.2 17.6 18.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.1 61.5 58.6 58.6 55.8 46.7 32.8 25.0 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 127.0 111.0 90.0 99.0 72.0 40.0 -6.0 -3.0 F F F F N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 77.0 72.0 72.0 67.0 66.0 60.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 -8.0 F N N N N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 2.1% 4.3% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 5.5% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.00 EP032022 220625 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 109.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.