Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  15.5  14.5  12.4  10.6  14.5  17.2  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  55.8  57.2  57.2  50.4  38.8  28.3  21.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  72.0  82.0  44.0  54.0 -12.0  -4.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.74

 EP032022 220625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.