Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  17.8  16.5  12.9  14.8  19.4  20.9  24.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.2  55.8  55.8  53.0  44.3  29.1  23.4  20.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  74.0  75.0  84.0  42.0  -3.0 -38.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.52

 EP032022 220625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.