Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220625 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 15.6 14.0 13.7 21.7 21.7 21.1 21.4 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.6 62.2 59.4 56.7 44.8 34.1 28.4 24.1 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 55.0 32.0 36.0 -19.0 -20.0 8.0 18.0 N N N N U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 70.0 71.0 70.0 64.0 62.0 57.0 51.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 -1.0 0.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 -5.0 N F N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.50 EP032022 220625 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.