Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220626 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 14.0 14.4 15.6 21.2 18.9 24.6 21.8 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.4 55.4 51.7 47.0 35.9 27.6 24.1 20.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 36.0 25.0 0.0 -25.0 -18.0 2.0 24.0 N N U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 72.0 69.0 66.0 63.0 57.0 54.0 47.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.04 EP032022 220626 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.