Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220626 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  16.4  18.8  20.4  17.9  23.4  24.0  28.3  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  59.2  52.0  44.7  34.2  30.4  25.2  24.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  11.0  -7.0 -24.0 -10.0   9.0  24.0   2.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.80

 EP032022 220626 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.