Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220626 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 18.0 18.2 18.9 18.8 21.3 22.3 30.2 F F F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 56.7 50.9 40.9 35.0 28.4 23.4 21.7 21.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -28.0 -5.0 3.0 4.0 7.0 U U U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 65.0 65.0 62.0 55.0 47.0 40.0 36.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 10.0 6.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.04 EP032022 220626 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.