Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220627 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  19.7  19.5  15.4  21.3  20.2  23.9  26.3  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.8  35.0  29.2  25.4  19.6  16.2  15.7  15.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -22.0 -12.0   4.0   2.0  12.0  14.0  -7.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  44.0  38.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.34

 EP032022 220627 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.