Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220627 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  19.1  15.4  17.3  19.4  18.2  26.6  25.3  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  35.0  31.2  28.4  23.4  21.2  20.7  20.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  -4.0  19.0  -3.0  -4.0   5.0  22.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  41.0  37.0  32.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.76

 EP032022 220627 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.