Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032022 220627 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  15.6  17.2  20.7  18.1  21.5  27.4  27.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.8  35.4  32.1  29.6  26.7  25.1  24.6  24.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  21.0 -12.0 -10.0   8.0   9.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  44.0  41.0  36.0  36.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   6.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.16

 EP032022 220627 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.