Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220628 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 120.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 20.2 19.1 22.6 26.2 26.8 26.8 26.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.8 36.7 35.7 35.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 -14.0 -12.0 -1.0 26.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 41.0 41.0 36.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.64 EP032022 220628 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 120.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.