Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032022 220628 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 120.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 20.4 23.8 26.1 27.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.7 40.7 40.1 39.1 39.1 39.6 39.6 39.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -7.0 -9.0 7.0 1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 42.0 40.0 34.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 7.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N N N U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.46 EP032022 220628 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 120.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.