Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  18.6  16.4  19.0  16.8  23.6  26.5  21.4  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   5.0   8.0  20.0  15.0  15.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  95.5  99.4 103.6 110.1 107.9 112.3 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  82.0 104.0 134.0  90.0 101.0 111.0  51.0  F  N  F VF  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        2.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       17.3%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        8.3%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        8.2%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%        8.2%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       23.7%       15.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.1%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%        9.1%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        6.0%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        9.5%        7.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 EP042022 220702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  18.6  16.4  19.0  16.8  23.6  26.5  21.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%