Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     88.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  21.4  23.2  16.7  22.7  26.6  25.0  23.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   6.0   9.0  14.0  19.0  18.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  92.4 100.7 105.1 105.1 107.3 100.7 102.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 107.0 122.0 139.0 100.0 127.0  69.0  18.0  N  F  F VF  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        6.1%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.0%       34.0%       30.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.9%       20.8%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       20.8%       15.4%
 40kt / 24h       10.1%       20.4%       15.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.3%       42.2%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.2%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%       12.6%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       11.2%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%       11.1%        7.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP042022 220703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     88.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  21.4  23.2  16.7  22.7  26.6  25.0  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%