Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  18.0  21.1  23.4  29.0  27.6  25.4  26.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  14.0  21.0  18.0  18.0  17.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9 100.1 102.3 100.1 102.3  95.7  97.9  87.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   142.0 147.0 108.0 110.0 128.0  62.0  46.0   4.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        4.3%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       27.0%       23.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       15.6%       12.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       15.6%       10.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       15.6%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       16.4%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        6.5%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        2.8%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP042022 220703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  18.0  21.1  23.4  29.0  27.6  25.4  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%