Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220704 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  22.4  24.3  24.6  25.5  24.5  21.1  16.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  16.0  18.0  18.0  10.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.3  82.9  85.1  87.3  78.6  78.6  63.0  52.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  83.0 110.0 108.0  52.0  44.0  19.0  41.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.6%       19.3%       31.9%
 25kt / 24h       46.9%       45.9%       46.4%
 30kt / 24h       38.7%       38.3%       38.5%
 35kt / 24h       38.7%       38.3%       38.5%
 40kt / 24h       38.7%       38.3%       38.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.8%       21.9%       23.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        8.2%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        3.6%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP042022 220704 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  22.4  24.3  24.6  25.5  24.5  21.1  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%