Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.2  27.2  22.5  23.3  21.3  16.1  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  12.0  13.0  14.0  10.0   7.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  80.1  69.4  63.5  71.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  51.0  82.0  49.0  38.0  76.0  26.0 -14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.4%       12.2%       15.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.6%       35.0%       30.8%
 30kt / 24h       22.6%       29.9%       26.3%
 35kt / 24h       22.6%       29.9%       26.3%
 40kt / 24h       22.6%       29.7%       26.1%
 45kt / 36h       14.2%       10.8%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        6.2%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 EP042022 220704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.2  27.2  22.5  23.3  21.3  16.1  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%