Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     99.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.4  22.9  24.2  26.9  16.9  22.3  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  14.0  15.0  14.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  70.1  59.4  59.4  61.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  79.0  43.0  25.0  35.0  40.0 -24.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.0%       18.2%       33.1%
 25kt / 24h       40.6%       38.7%       39.7%
 30kt / 24h       40.6%       33.8%       37.2%
 35kt / 24h       40.6%       33.8%       37.2%
 40kt / 24h       40.6%       33.4%       37.0%
 45kt / 36h       30.4%       16.4%       23.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.9%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        4.8%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 EP042022 220704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     99.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.4  22.9  24.2  26.9  16.9  22.3  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%