Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.2  24.2  26.1  22.7  15.1  19.3  16.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  11.0   7.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  77.0  74.6  72.3  63.6  53.5  57.4  53.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  31.0  34.0  10.0  55.0  24.0 -15.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.4%       10.1%       17.2%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       20.0%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       14.8%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       14.8%       16.5%
 40kt / 24h       18.2%       14.8%       16.5%
 45kt / 36h       16.9%        6.4%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 EP042022 220705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.2  24.2  26.1  22.7  15.1  19.3  16.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%