Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.3  24.4  27.1  16.1  17.8  16.9  18.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  14.0  13.0   8.0   7.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  69.6  67.3  60.7  50.5  48.5  50.5  34.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0   6.0  -2.0  51.0  30.0   9.0  17.0 -13.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.6%        6.7%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       12.1%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%        8.1%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%        8.1%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%        7.9%        8.4%
 45kt / 36h       14.3%        4.9%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP042022 220705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.3  24.4  27.1  16.1  17.8  16.9  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%