Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    103.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  28.3  28.6  21.4  15.5  20.5  19.4  20.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  14.0  15.0   6.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  57.3  52.9  48.6  38.5  42.4  33.0  12.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  14.0  55.0  53.0  22.0  -1.0  -6.0 -34.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%        4.6%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%        6.9%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%        4.0%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.8%        4.0%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.8%        4.0%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP042022 220705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    103.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  28.3  28.6  21.4  15.5  20.5  19.4  20.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%