Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  27.1  20.2  15.6  20.0  19.7  21.3  17.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  11.0   9.0   4.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.3  48.6  44.4  38.5  36.6  36.6  22.7  -1.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  40.0  47.0  17.0  -2.0  14.0 -45.0  -4.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -4.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.2%        5.0%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%        7.9%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%        5.2%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%        5.2%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        4.9%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP042022 220705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  27.1  20.2  15.6  20.0  19.7  21.3  17.6  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -4.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%