Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  21.0  15.6  13.9  20.6  22.2  22.3  19.3  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.6  47.4  43.5  41.6  43.5  32.7  11.7  -3.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  64.0  35.0   5.0  -7.0   7.0 -24.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP042022 220706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  21.0  15.6  13.9  20.6  22.2  22.3  19.3  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%