Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220706 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.7  14.7  20.1  21.3  22.0  17.8  16.3  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.4  46.6  44.8  46.6  44.8  26.5   7.0  -1.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  19.0   1.0 -21.0  16.0 -46.0  14.0   0.0  N  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  42.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 EP042022 220706 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.