Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  14.1  18.5  21.2  21.7  16.4  18.1  12.7  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.5  59.8  61.6  63.5  54.4  31.7  17.7  11.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  13.0  -5.0 -11.0   0.0 -27.0  21.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  42.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 EP042022 220706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.