Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042022 220706 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 19.2 21.6 23.3 21.3 17.1 14.0 12.8 F N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.0 44.8 48.5 46.6 28.0 8.2 0.7 -3.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -6.0 -6.0 18.0 -16.0 -6.0 -9.0 -20.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 59.0 56.0 50.0 44.0 38.0 37.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.6% 2.3% 3.0% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 3.2% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 1.9% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP042022 220706 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.